Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: A methodological proposal

Foresight (2009), Volume 11(6): 21-41
Yanuar Nugroho and Ozcan Saritas

Abstract

Purpose – A particular feature that makes foresight powerful is its capability to learn from past trends to help guide decision-making for future policy. However, in studying both past and future trends, network perspectives are often missing. Since networks are capable of revealing the structure that underpins relationships between stakeholders, key issues and actions in the past, they are powerful to help envisage the future. The purpose of this paper is to propose a methodological framework to incorporate network analysis in foresight.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper develops a generic framework to incorporate network analysis into foresight’s five stages. Trends identified by respondents of the Big Picture Survey are used to demonstrate how we operationalize this framework.

Microfinance and Innovation: Are we reinventing the Wheel?

I had an opportunity to co-author with my ex supervisor Professor Ian Miles to write an opinion in the world magazine MicrofinanceInsights. The piece appears in the latest edition (Vol 15, Nov/Dec 2009). I quote the editorial’s comment:

Innovation: Are we Reinventing the Wheel?

In this issue, we look at different innovations—product, technology, and financial—that are adding value and efficiency to the sector. In our Commentary, Ian Miles and Yanuar Nugroho of the University of Manchester, argue that microfinance is now poised to bridge the gap between the privileged and the bottom of the pyramid, with the help of innovations that bear no resemblance to the Wall Street machinations that helped bring the global economy to its knees. In our cover story, Stephen Hodgson of Redport International and Yana Watson of Dalberg Global Development Advisors, question the nature of innovation that has taken place in microfinance to date; cite examples from the annals of financial history that could work well when applied to microfinance; and conclude that the sector might be better served if it adopts models that have been tried and tested in other spheres of finance. The issue brims with examples of innovations that work—from mobile technology in India to financial education for Mongolian teenagers to ATM-style kiosks in Georgia—and ones that don’t, such as the Business Correspondent system, which has faltered in India. In this issue’s Survey, our team polled 180 microfinance institutions about how Information & Communication Technology has influenced their work. You will also find the results of a Reader Survey we conducted in September to gauge what our audience thinks of Microfinance Insights so we can tailor the content to suit their preferences.

Growing green: Venture capital support for clean technology

InnoGRIPS Newsletter No. 9, October 2009

by Jennifer Hayden and Yanuar Nugroho
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, United Kingdom

Global venture capital has been hit hard by the recession, dampening the prospects for many would-be start-ups at just the time when job creation and innovation are badly needed. Venture capital plays a critical role in funding the risky, early stages that other forms of finance often shy away from. Fund managers bring a mix of expertise and capital to guide a good idea to fruition with the goal of reaping large pay-offs at the IPO, but more often than not the venture fails – a risk that traditional funding bodies will not take on board. The success of the venture capital industry is important because it acts as a catalyst for innovation in the economy and can be critical in bringing course-altering technologies to the fore1. It is promising then that global venture capital is addressing itself to the grand challenge of climate change through its support of green technologies.

The Ties that Bind: Law, Islamisation and Indonesia’s Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)

Australian Journal of Asian Law, (2008), Vol 10 (2): 233-267
Najwa Shihab, Yanuar Nugroho

Abstract

There are clear indications that Indonesia’s Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera or PKS) has shifted from being a hardline (garis keras) Islamist party, to take a more moderate stance, with significant changes to its platform. Prominent among these are decisions to step back from earlier demands for the enforcement of Islamic law and the creation of an Islamic state in Indonesia, as well as major modifications to doctrinal positions relating to the legal status of women as leaders, and formal relations with non-Muslims. This article investigates the factors that have contributed to this shift, and argues that it is a result of political processes in Indonesia that compel PKS to moderate its platform to expand its constituency. It is also argued that an ideological transformation has taken place within PKS, that the transformation is genuine, albeit contested internally, and that it is probably necessary for electoral success.

Authors

Najwa Shihab is an Indonesian journalist specialising in law, politics and social change. She has been working as an anchor and host of political talk shows on an Indonesian national television network. She is currently undertaking a Masters program in the Faculty of Law at the University of Melbourne.

Yanuar Nugroho is Research Associate with the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research at the University of Manchester. His research interests include new media innovation and social change, focusing on civic politics and democracy. He is also active in the Indonesian NGO movement and is associated with Business Watch Indonesia (BWI), Uni Sosial Demokrat and ELSPPAT.

This article is dated 2008, but was just out in September 2009 . Read the full article here, or here. Or if you cannot get the access, email me or Najwa and we perhaps can share the pre-publication proof for you – depending what it is for ..